In 2019 Q2, ANCi dropped for the third quarter in a row, and is now categorized as in the uncertain range of 45 to 55. The ANCi had seen marked improvement through 2018 but has steadily declined since Q3 of 2018 when the ANCi reached a recent high point of 59.3. The index was 53.0, down 1.7 points from Q1 and is down 6.3 points from the recent peak. The more stable six-month moving average of the index dropped 1.9 points to 53.9 in 2019 Q2, still up by .9 points over the reading from 2018 Q2.
During the same time, U.S. consumer confidence also decreased. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ® fell 7.7 points from April to June, while the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly by 1.0 point to 98.2.
Local economic confidence has eroded markedly since 2018 Q4, down 3.2 points to 50.8 in 2019 Q2. Personal Financial Confidence has also declined, down 5.6 points to 62.5 in 2019 Q2, and is the lowest score for this indicator since 2017 Q3. Future Expectations has declined the most of the 3 component scores that make up the overall ANCi score. Future Expectations declined to 49.3, down 8.4 points since 2018 Q3.