Research & Reports

2025 Economic Forecast

In recent years, Anchorage has seen a notable improvement by many measures of the economy. This includes increased cargo traffic at Ted Stevens International and the Port of Alaska, a higher dollar value of construction permits, robust visitor volume, increased employment, and even an increase in real personal income (adjusted for inflation). Several of these measures reflect the strength of the national economy, federal policies and spending, or other macroeconomic factors extending beyond Anchorage. Closer to home, new projects and developments on the North Slope are advancing, with the new Santos building in downtown Anchorage a visible symbol of increased oil and gas activity in Alaska.

Despite these positive economic signs, many households faced rising prices and affordability challenges in the economy of 2023 and 2024, leading to relatively weak consumer confidence in Anchorage and nationwide1. While federal interest rate policy has been effective in slowing the rate of inflation, prices remain high. Specifically, housing prices have continued to climb, with the average single-family sales price reaching nearly $514,000 in 2024, a 40% increase over 2019. The relatively slow pace of new housing construction is one contributing factor. New single-family, duplex, triplex, and fourplex construction remained anemic with an estimated 237 units permitted in 2024, well below the 500 units permitted annually between 2012 and 2015. Employers have cited these factors as key challenges in attracting new workers to Anchorage.

Several forces in Anchorage’s economy will feature prominently in 2025. New energy from development work on the North Slope will increasingly be felt in Anchorage as the Pikka project moves toward production in late 2025/early 2026 and Willow project development continues toward oil production at decade’s end. An influx of federal construction funding statewide has brought a wave of new work to Anchorage’s architects, engineers, and construction companies.